Macro Disturbances Cause SS Futures to Plunge Significantly, Underperform in Peak Season Stainless Steel Prices in the Doldrums [SMM Stainless Steel Daily Report]

SMM October 13, SS futures showed a clear downward trend, pulling back. Affected by the potential escalation of Sino-US trade friction and renewed discussions on US tariff policies, metal futures fell sharply starting from Friday's night session and continued to weaken today. The intraday price of SS once dropped, approaching the 12,600 yuan/mt mark. In the spot market, influenced by the sharp decline in futures and the pullback in Tsingshan's listed prices, market confidence was dampened, with inquiries and transactions both sluggish during the day. Although some traders offered discounts, it was still difficult to reverse downstream wait-and-see sentiment, and the overall market remained in the doldrums.

Futures side, the most-traded contract 2511 strengthened and moved higher. At 10:30 am, SS2511 was quoted at 12,640 yuan/mt, down 195 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums/discounts for 304/2B in Wuxi were in the range of 480-780 yuan/mt. In the spot market, the average price for cold-rolled 201/2B coil in Wuxi was 8,050 yuan/mt; for cold-rolled mill-edge 304/2B coil, the average price in Wuxi was 13,150 yuan/mt, and in Foshan 13,100 yuan/mt; for cold-rolled 316L/2B coil in Wuxi, the price was 25,300 yuan/mt, and in Foshan 25,300 yuan/mt; for hot-rolled 316L/NO.1 coil, the price in both locations was 24,750 yuan/mt; for cold-rolled 430/2B coil, the price in both Wuxi and Foshan was 7,600 yuan/mt.

During the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays, the domestic stainless steel market was generally on holiday, with shipments and warehouse movements restricted, and spot transactions suspended. However, starting from the middle of the holiday period, LME nickel futures prices rose continuously, driving up nickel and stainless steel futures prices, which somewhat boosted market confidence. Currently, there is a significant divergence between the fundamentals of the stainless steel market and macro expectations. From a macro perspective, the US government shutdown during the holiday period spurred safe-haven demand for funds, pushing up commodity futures prices overall. Coupled with expectations for two more US Fed interest rate cuts within the year, the overall environment was favorable for commodity prices. However, the fundamentals of stainless steel appeared somewhat weak. Although it is still the traditional September-October peak season for consumption, downstream demand recovery has been limited, market transactions have been sluggish, and social inventory has shown signs of stopping its decline and rebounding. Furthermore, prices of raw materials high-grade NPI and high-carbon ferrochrome have softened, leading to a weakening of cost support for stainless steel. Going forward, attention should still be paid to the materialization of macro news and changes in downstream demand.